ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 010747 
SPC MCD 010747 
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK INTO WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 33...

VALID 010747Z - 010915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 33
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH DAYBREAK. 
THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

DISCUSSION...BASED ON THE LATEST MRMS MESH DATA...SEVERE HAIL
POTENTIAL HAS GENERALLY BECOME CONFINED TO AN ISOLATED INTENSE CELL
ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LARGER-SCALE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER AREA.  THIS
STORM APPEARS SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...WHERE THE INFLOW OF MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIR IS
MAXIMIZED.  ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLATEX TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF TEXARKANA BY 10-11Z. 
HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME...IT APPEARS...BASED ON THE LATEST RAPID
REFRESH OUTPUT...THAT SUPPORTING FORCING WILL WEAKEN...AND IT IS NOT
CLEAR THAT THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH.

OTHERWISE...THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS BEEN PROGRESSING ALONG
AT GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE LEVELS.  WIND GUSTS...AT TIMES...HAVE BEEN
APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS...BUT THERE APPEARS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT...IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...IS SUPPORTING
NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN OKLAHOMA CITY AND TULSA.  A FURTHER
INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE 10-11Z TIME FRAME...AIDED BY MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  GIVEN THE CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS TULSA AND THE SURROUNDING REGION
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHEAR MAY
NOT BE AS STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION AS IT IS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...SO SEVERE WEATHER OVERALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND CURRENTLY
SEEMS MOSTLY MARGINAL.

..KERR.. 03/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   36919417 36989220 35769161 34529249 33309454 33989614
            34909675 36249708 36799648 36919417 

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