ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241818 
SPC MCD 241818 
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-242015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA/NC AND MD/DC METRO AREA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 241818Z - 242015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE TORNADO RISK WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM UPSTATE/PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF NC INTO
SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL VA AND EVENTUALLY ADJACENT MD/DC METRO
VICINITY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG /EF2+/
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...INCLUDING AREAS SPANNING
RALEIGH/DURHAM NC AND THE I-85/I-95 CORRIDORS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE RICHMOND VA VICINITY. A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS HIGHLY LIKELY
FOR SOUTHERN VA BY AROUND 19Z/2 PM EST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO
WATCH ISSUANCE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF VA/MD AND DC METRO AREA.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON /1 PM EST/...MULTIPLE
NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BANDS OF INCREASINGLY INTENSE STORMS ARE ONGOING IN
TWO DISTINCT CORRIDORS...ONE ACROSS WESTERN NC AND THE OTHER ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL NC...EACH ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS HAS ALSO RECENTLY BEEN
NOTED ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT/SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. AN
EROSION/NORTHWARD-SHIFT OF THE WEDGE FRONT CONTINUES TO OCCUR AS A
WARM FRONT EFFECTIVELY ANGLES SOUTHWEST/NORTHEASTWARD AT THE PRESENT
TIME FROM WESTERN NC INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL VA.
GIVEN THAT REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS/RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA ARE
SAMPLING AN EXTREMELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT/MASS RESPONSE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION...IT
SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT THE TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE/SHIFT GENERALLY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION/FRONTAL WEDGE EROSION CONTINUES TO OCCUR.

..GUYER/GRAMS.. 02/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36358067 37677980 38917802 38907686 38227584 36797638
            35577882 36358067 

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