ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 241546 SPC MCD 241546 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-241745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 241546Z - 241745Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME TORNADO RISK SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN/UPSTATE PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY FOR WHAT COULD BE A REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPDATE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE PEAK SEVERE PROBABILITIES /INCLUDING STRONG TORNADO RISK/ ARE LIKELY TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/SOUTHERN VA. DISCUSSION...A DEEP CYCLONE CURRENTLY FEATURING A 986 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS. IN THE WAKE OF THICKER CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION HAVE BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC/SC. WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER IN THE PRESENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MATURE/INTENSIFY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED AS IT OTHERWISE RACES NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ACCORDINGLY...AT LEAST SOME TORNADO RISK COULD EXIST LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN/UPSTATE AREAS...WITH A MORE CERTAIN/ROBUST TORNADO RISK...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ERODING WEDGE FRONT/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WHERE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TORNADOES. ..GUYER/GRAMS.. 02/24/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34388207 35798194 36918014 37007853 35337822 33768071 34388207 NNNN