MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0131
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0535 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ALABAMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 232335Z - 240130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...IS EXPECTED
   TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE 01-04Z
   TIME FRAME. A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO.

   DISCUSSION...A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS LIKELY TO
   STEADILY DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MID TO LATE
   EVENING AS A 100 KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.  THIS
   LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF
   SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW /50-70+ KT/ ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...INCLUDING
   MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE 01-04Z TIME FRAME.  ASSOCIATED
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING PROBABLY WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL SURFACE
   COOLING...MAINTAINING AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AS
   STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVERSPREADS
   THE REGION.

   AN ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW NEAR/EAST NORTHEAST OF
   HATTIESBURG MS MAY REFLECT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS UPPER FORCING...
   WHICH MAY TRACK ACROSS THE SELMA AL AREA BY AROUND 01Z...AND AREAS
   NEAR/SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM BY AROUND 03Z.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
   BECOME INCREASINGLY PROMINENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH ISOLATED
   TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.  DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
   MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A SELMA/BIRMINGHAM LINE...BUT
   PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIVE THREAT FOR
   TORNADOES.  THIS INCLUDES THE RISK FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...IN
   THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

   ..KERR/HART.. 02/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32528777 33158751 33558684 33398590 33098541 32318550
               32018632 32158724 32528777