ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231811 
SPC MCD 231811 
TXZ000-232015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 231811Z - 232015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MODEST RISK WILL EXIST FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SERN
TX. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING HOW MANY STORMS IF ANY
WILL DEVELOP...SO OVERALL THREAT IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL. TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING IN
A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS SERN
TX. A NARROW ZONE OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH MID-LEVEL
DRY-SLOT BEHIND LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT AHEAD OF MAIN VORT MAX.
ONLY MODIFIED CP AIR WITH LOW 60F DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. THESE FACTORS IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 500-800 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW MANY STORMS WILL INITIATE GIVEN PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT AND TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO SWLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP
SHEAR WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS AND COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 7-7.5 C/KM
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 02/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29739562 30319537 30969497 30769395 29829383 29599444
            29299503 29409554 29739562 

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