ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 231644 
SPC MCD 231644 
MSZ000-LAZ000-231815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 231644Z - 231815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SERN MS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
INCREASING SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL LATE THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A WW WOULD BE NEEDED IN THE SHORT-TERM /BY AROUND NOON CST/...THOUGH
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY.

DISCUSSION...VIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
WITHIN A PLUME OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA OVER THE N GULF WATERS...WELL
IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP CYCLONE CROSSING PARTS OF N TX. SFC OBS IMPLY A
STEADY WARMING/MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
AROUND 64-68F AMIDST POCKETS OF INSOLATION...SUPPORTING MLCAPE
AROUND 250-750 J/KG AND NEGLIGIBLE MLCINH. DEEPER CONVECTION OVER
THE N GULF MAY REACH THE COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BRINGING SOME SVR RISK ONSHORE. DEEP SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE LIX VWP PRESENTLY SUGGESTS
MODEST...THOUGH SUFFICIENT...LOW-LEVEL SRH /AROUND 125 M2 PER S2 IN
THE 0-1-KM LAYER/ FOR A TORNADO RISK. HOWEVER...THE MASS RESPONSE TO
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS NW OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT A MORE
OPTIMAL WIND PROFILE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR TORNADOES -- WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 02/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29629198 30239195 30689110 30628940 30158895 29368932
            29119085 29629198 

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