ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161344 
SPC MCD 161344 
NCZ000-161445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND THE OUTER BANKS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 161344Z - 161445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF WIND
DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SQUALL LINE MOVES E OF
THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MATURE QLCS ACROSS ERN NC MOVING
RAPIDLY NEWD AT 45 KT.  THE ORIENTATION OF THE QLCS IN THE BOWING
PORTIONS OF THE LINE HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE
STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW.  IT IS HERE THAT ISOLD STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  FARTHER S NEAR THE CAPE LOOKOUT
VICINITY...SEVERAL HYBRID MESOCYCLONE/MESOVORTEX CIRCULATIONS HAVE
APPROACHED THE COAST DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR AND A CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT REDUCTION NOTED IN THE PAST 10 MIN WITH A PROBABLE
TORNADO.  IT REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG FLUX OF MOIST AND
MODIFYING MARITIME AIR THAT A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE
AND/OR BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADO MAY BE REALIZED OVER THE BARRIER
ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE COAST.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
TOWARDS CAPE HATTERAS DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
ENDING COINCIDENT WITH THE SQUALL LINE PASSAGE.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 02/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON   35937732 36227692 36377620 35877551 35207545 34487657
            35937732 

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