MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND THE OUTER BANKS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161344Z - 161445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLD STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF WIND
   DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SQUALL LINE MOVES E OF
   THE COAST.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MATURE QLCS ACROSS ERN NC MOVING
   RAPIDLY NEWD AT 45 KT.  THE ORIENTATION OF THE QLCS IN THE BOWING
   PORTIONS OF THE LINE HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE
   STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW.  IT IS HERE THAT ISOLD STRONG
   TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  FARTHER S NEAR THE CAPE LOOKOUT
   VICINITY...SEVERAL HYBRID MESOCYCLONE/MESOVORTEX CIRCULATIONS HAVE
   APPROACHED THE COAST DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR AND A CORRELATION
   COEFFICIENT REDUCTION NOTED IN THE PAST 10 MIN WITH A PROBABLE
   TORNADO.  IT REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG FLUX OF MOIST AND
   MODIFYING MARITIME AIR THAT A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE
   AND/OR BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADO MAY BE REALIZED OVER THE BARRIER
   ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE COAST.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
   TOWARDS CAPE HATTERAS DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
   ENDING COINCIDENT WITH THE SQUALL LINE PASSAGE.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 02/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

   LAT...LON   35937732 36227692 36377620 35877551 35207545 34487657
               35937732