ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 160959 SPC MCD 160959 FLZ000-161100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...FL EVERGLADES CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17... VALID 160959Z - 161100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 17 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR A SUPERCELL TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FL EVERGLADES AND MOVING INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY THROUGH 11-12Z. DISCUSSION...RECENT SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A WEDGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE/THETA-E NEAR AND S OF A LINE FROM APF NEWD TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NEAR THE MARTIN/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE. LOWER 70S TEMPS AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITHIN THIS REGION ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /AROUND 1000 J PER KG MLCAPE/. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER GA BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SRN PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR A SUPERCELL TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...ESPECIALLY FOR HENDRY AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS HERE WHERE AN ANCHORING SUPERCELL IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND A TORNADO COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER N WITH THE SQUALL LINE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT FARTHER S FOR BROWARD COUNTY SWWD TO THE TEN THOUSAND ISLANDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE W WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK. THE FACTORS OF 1) LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER AND 2) UPPER WAVE BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING LESS SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES. THEREFORE...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ABOUT THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH OR A WATCH EXTENSION-IN-AREA SOUTH OF THE EXISTING WATCH. ..SMITH.. 02/16/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... LAT...LON 26188144 26428137 26968049 26888007 26428012 26048129 26188144 NNNN