ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160654 
SPC MCD 160654 
FLZ000-160900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 160654Z - 160900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BAND OF TSTMS WILL MOVE ASHORE WRN FL PENINSULA WITHIN
NEXT FEW HOURS...OFFERING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STG-SVR GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON.

DISCUSSION...0650Z COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SFC
DATA INDICATE TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF PRE-FRONTAL/LOW-LEVEL LIFT
SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION:  
1. SERN GA SWWD ACROSS CTY AREA TO ABOUT 80 WNW PIE AND
2. OVER GULF...ROUGHLY 40 WSW PIE TO ABOUT 175 WSW FMY.

PRECIP INFLUENCES FROM GULF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO STABILIZE
INFLOW REGION OF SRN PORTION OF FIRST BAND...CONSIDERABLY
SUPPRESSING SVR POTENTIAL N OF TBW REGION.  HOWEVER...SECOND/SRN
BAND WILL PROCEED EWD 30-35 KT...MOVING ASHORE FIRST AROUND TBW
REGION THEN FARTHER S ALONG W COAST TOWARD SRQ AND FMY.  00Z TBW
RAOB CONTAINED SOME STABLE LAYERS ALOFT STRONGLY LIMITING
BUOYANCY...HOWEVER COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SINCE THEN
AND SOME STEEPENING OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS INCREASED BUOYANCY
OVER LAND.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE
AROUND 500-800 J/KG WITH SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS ACROSS
CENTRAL FL...AMIDST 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  EFFECTIVE
SRH OVER REGION IS ESTIMATED AROUND 250-400 J/KG...BASED BOTH ON
THOSE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND ON OBSERVED VWP FROM TBW AND MLB.  MLCINH
APPEARS MINIMAL DESPITE SHALLOW/DIABATICALLY COOLED STABLE LAYER
NEAR SFC...AND THAT COOLING MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LOW-LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION IN TERMS OF MAINTAINING SFC DEW POINTS MID-60S F
AND KEEPING CINH WEAK.  THIS ALSO MAY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AHEAD OF PRIMARY SQUALL LINE...EVOLVING FROM
CURRENTLY WEAK CONVECTION INLAND NEAR COAST. 

THREAT FARTHER S AROUND MARCO ISLAND AND EWD ACROSS EVERGLADES TO S
FL METRO IS MORE DISTANT IN TIME AND UNCERTAIN GIVEN NEWD EJECTION
OF ERN CONUS LOW AND ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AWAY FROM THIS
REGION...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKENING/VEERING OF FLOW POSSIBLE BY
AROUND DAYBREAK.

..EDWARDS.. 02/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   28128273 28278226 28378165 27928121 27378105 26898118
            25808169 26328183 26458195 26398204 26488220 26768230
            26958234 27378263 27628275 27848286 28008280 28128273 

NNNN