ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 151951 SPC MCD 151951 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-152145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0104 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SRN AND CNTRL AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14...15... VALID 151951Z - 152145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 14...15...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SRN LA EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MS INTO SRN AND CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING 1005 MB LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF MERIDIAN MS WITH A THERMAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL AL. A LARGE CLUSTER OF CELLS IS ONGOING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED ZONE OF CONFLUENCE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING NEAR THE SFC LOW EXTENDING SWD ALONG A SFC TROUGH INTO SE LA. THE WARM SECTOR IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY AND EXTENDS WWD INTO SRN LA JUST AHEAD OF A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. A 40 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN LA NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS INTO NCNTRL AL. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO SRN MS AND SCNTRL AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL SUSTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FROM THE ERN PART OF WW 14 EWD ACROSS WW 15. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO CONTAIN WIND DAMAGE AND HAVE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD ALSO PERSIST AS A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVES SEWD INTO SE LA AND FAR SRN MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 02/15/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30558511 30188609 30238776 30098912 29559053 29669139 29859186 30319177 31169126 32439015 33458854 32498523 30558511 NNNN