ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151341 
SPC MCD 151341 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-151615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST / SWRN INTO CNTRL LA / SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 151341Z - 151615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THIS MORNING.  THE TIMING IS UNCLEAR BUT AN EVENTUAL NEED
FOR A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS FROM
THE UPPER TX COAST NEWD INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF LA.  THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS POCKETS OF HEATING
COUPLED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE BUOYANCY AND REDUCED MLCINH BY MID-LATE MORNING. 
FURTHERMORE...SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATION IN THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS WILL LEND SOME INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS.  THE RISK FOR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS /ONCE TEMPS RISE INTO
THE MID-UPPER 60S/ AND INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR ONE OR MORE
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE LOW IN THE SHORT TERM BUT INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES FURTHER BY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
SEVERAL STORMS POSING AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT...SHORT-TERM
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 02/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   29839425 31149322 32079194 31868969 31218906 31068973
            30749191 29809335 29839425 

NNNN