ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151002 
SPC MCD 151002 
NCZ000-TNZ000-151600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN / WRN AND CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 151002Z - 151600Z

SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND LATER TOWARDS AND
AFTER DAYBREAK FROM THE CHARLOTTE VICINITY TO THE RESEARCH TRIANGLE.
FREEZING-RAIN RATES AT OR ABOVE 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS IS FORECAST.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WSW-ENE
ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SRN MIDDLE TN MOVING
ENEWD TOWARDS THE SPINE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  A STRONG WAA
REGIME WILL SHIFT EWD/STRENGTHEN E OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING
ATOP A COLD DOME IN PLACE E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE 00Z GSO RAOB
SHOWED A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN THE LOWEST 1 KM.  GRADUAL MOISTENING
FROM THE W AND S HAS LIKELY OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUAL COLUMNAR
SATURATION/WET BULB COOLING IS EXPECTED.  THERMAL STRATIFICATION OF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A WARM LAYER ABOVE 0 DEG
C BETWEEN H9-H85 AND ADDITIONAL WARMING AROUND THIS LAYER WILL FAVOR
A TRANSITION FROM SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE TN/NC BORDER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW TO SLEET AND
LATER FREEZING RAIN OCCURS OVER NWRN NC.  PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
PROBABLY EXCEED 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SWATH
OF HIGHER RATES OVERSPREADS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

..SMITH.. 02/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36357826 36228307 35488395 35318292 35717803 36357826 

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