ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 031856 SPC MCD 031856 NCZ000-SCZ000-032100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CST WED FEB 03 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 031856Z - 032100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT BETWEEN NOW AND 20-22Z. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DISCUSSION...A NARROW LINE OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO/THROUGH THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. NEAR AN APPARENT WAVE WITHIN THIS LINE...NOW APPROACHING THE COLUMBIA SC AREA...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A PERSISTENT AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...TOWARD THE FAYETTEVILLE NC AREA...BETWEEN NOW AND 20-22Z. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION...INSOLATION...COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. WITH AT LEAST SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME RECENT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS EVIDENT IN THE COLUMBIA VWP DATA...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW FIELDS APPEAR TO REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 40 KT. IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT MAY SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...SURFACE GUSTS. ..KERR/KERR.. 02/03/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34328120 34818066 35118000 35347929 35227884 34627882 33718072 33718148 34328120 NNNN