ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 022318 
SPC MCD 022318 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-030115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW AL...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SRN AND ERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...

VALID 022318Z - 030115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN LA...SRN AND
CNTRL MS AND SW AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE
NERN PART OF THE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN WRN MS WITH
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SE LA ACROSS MOST OF MS. SFC
DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER
70S F WITH MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWING AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE CNTRL PART OF THE WATCH. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER MORE INTENSE LINE LOCATED
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
JACKSON NNEWD TO NEAR COLUMBUS MS. THE WSR-88D VWP AT JACKSON MS
SHOWS STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
NEAR 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELCITIES IN
THE 350 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
WILL BE IN THE NERN PART OF THE WATCH NEAR THE AL STATE LINE WHERE
THE CORE OF A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED. ALTHOUGH SFC
WINDS ARE MORE VEERED IN THE SRN PART OF THE WATCH...ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DUE TO THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

..BROYLES.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   29529131 29609146 29699148 29779169 29639193 29549233
            29609262 30019264 30039271 30119260 30449262 30569240
            30529223 30739215 30989227 30979223 31299222 31349200
            31859204 31939192 32089186 32179195 32279203 32409199
            32659167 32899154 33029146 33019086 33109088 33089061
            32919061 32899039 33029041 32969021 32848985 32878972
            32948973 32898837 32298842 32308807 32018812 31968768
            32118758 32118752 32258749 32248739 32038710 32028688
            31798693 31588715 31358736 31278749 31248764 30848763
            30718744 30518742 30398743 30268760 30238861 30198904
            30098930 30038945 30158954 30188973 30188983 30048993
            30029020 30119041 30019059 29899052 29909074 29929088
            29719097 29559112 29529131 

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