ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021850 
SPC MCD 021850 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA...SERN MS...SRN AL...AND THE
FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 021850Z - 021945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES THE
MAIN THREATS. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING FROM KLIX SHOWS A NEARLY UNCAPPED
SURFACE-BASED PARCEL...AND CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INCREASED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA INTO SRN AL...MOST LIKELY ALONG
MULTIPLE CONFLUENCE LINES AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING
THE MS RIVER. SIMILAR TO THE METEOROLOGICAL REASONING PROVIDED IN
MCD 73 FOR MUCH OF MS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SLY/SELY WINDS...INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIKEWISE INCREASE...WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG BECOMING COMMON
ACROSS THE MCD AREA. BOTH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA AS WELL AS
LOCATIONS FURTHER W IN CNTRL/SRN MS AND PARTS OF ERN LA IS LIKELY
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30298822 29718916 29288975 28969074 29279121 29949096
            31399003 31868874 31948790 31928692 31828634 30478653
            30298822 

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