ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 281122 
SPC MCD 281122 
FLZ000-281345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL/FL KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 281122Z - 281345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA AND/OR MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE KEYS THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS. SOME RISK EXISTS FOR
WATERSPOUTS AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADO INLAND.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 615 AM EST/1115Z...A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED
CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
COLLIER COUNTY/MAINLAND MONROE AND THE LOWER KEYS...WITH A FEW
LINE-PRECEDING SHOWERS ALSO NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND MONROE
AND NEAR KEY WEST. AS A BYPRODUCT OF CONVECTION LAST EVENING...AN
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY ARCS ACROSS THE KEYS/NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA. RELATED TO THE INFLUENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY/PRIOR
CONVECTION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA
ARE AROUND 2-4 DEG F COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WHILE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...PARTICULARLY AT MIAMI AS
PER LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA. THAT SAID...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS IN TANDEM WITH SOME
MODIFICATION/NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THIS EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THIS COULD
BETTER SUPPORT SUSTAINED BOWING SEGMENTS AND AT LEAST
TRANSIENT/EMBEDDED UPDRAFT ROTATION AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. SOME
RISK EXISTS FOR WATERSPOUTS AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADO
INLAND...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR/IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   25368192 25868158 26218088 26068003 25178012 24468115
            24398232 24918278 25368192 

NNNN