ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 271221 
SPC MCD 271221 
FLZ000-271445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 271221Z - 271445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A
TORNADO WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT
INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN FL PENINSULA.
DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS THROUGH EARLY/MID-MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER OFFSHORE STORMS HAVE MOVED INLAND OVER THE PAST
60-90 MINUTES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST FL PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN
COLLIER COUNTY AND NORTHERN MAINLAND MONROE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN
UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LIGHTNING...A REINTENSIFICATION TREND HAS OCCURRED
AS THESE STORMS HAVE MOVED INLAND WITH MULTIPLE INSTANCES OF
TRANSIENT/MODEST LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...WITH A TRANSITIONAL
HIGH-PRECIP SUPERCELL/BOW-TYPE MODE AS OF 7 AM EST/12Z. 

STEADY LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING CONTINUES TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH UPPER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/VERO BEACH VICINITIES
AS OF 12Z. IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL PENINSULA IN VICINITY OF A SUBTLE WARM
FRONT. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH 350 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH RECENTLY NOTED IN THE
MELBOURNE WSR-88D VWP. WSR-88D VWP DATA AND THE 12Z MIAMI OBSERVED
SOUNDING SUGGEST APPROXIMATELY 175-250 M2/S2 OF O-1 KM SRH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PENINSULA WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF AROUND 600 J/KG
MLCAPE. THE OVERALL SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUSTAINED BOWS AND EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO AS STORMS SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL PENINSULA
THROUGH EARLY/MID-MORNING.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON   25598137 26228086 27908080 27557998 25398019 25158102
            25598137 

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