ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 230508 
SPC MCD 230508 
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-231015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0057
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA...CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ...AND
THE NYC METRO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 230508Z - 231015Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD...IMPACTING EASTERN PA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL NJ...NYC...AND
WESTERN LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MORNING. RATES UP
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...AS AN 850-700 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN EAST
TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH DEFORMATION ALOFT TO SPREAD
MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWFALL NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE AREA. SNOW
HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...BUT GENERALLY
HAS REMAINED LIGHT/MODERATE IN INTENSITY. NONETHELESS...THE KDOX VWP
EXHIBITS A LARGE/CYCLONICALLY LOOPED HODOGRAPH...INDICATING STRONG
WARM-AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE APPROXIMATE 1-4 KM LAYER TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION. MOREOVER...SFC OBS ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ SHOW PRESSURE
FALLS AROUND 2-2.5 MB/HR...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING
WARM-AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THUS...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FURTHER
STRENGTHENS AND 850-700 MB FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...IMPROVED ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION PROCESSES WILL FAVOR
SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR LATE TONIGHT...MOST
LIKELY AROUND 07-10Z.

..PICCA.. 01/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39727723 39707770 40017792 40607726 41057604 41227481
            41057410 40797346 39997411 39807582 39727723 

NNNN