ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 221138 
SPC MCD 221138 
NCZ000-SCZ000-221645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NC/NORTHERN SC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 221138Z - 221645Z

SUMMARY...A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NC/FAR NORTHERN SC THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE NC
PIEDMONT AND FAR NORTHERN SC WHERE HOURLY ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD
REACH OR EXCEED 0.05 IN/HR FOR A MULTI-HOUR DURATION.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS
NC/NORTHERN SC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN APPROACHING BAND OF MORE
CONSEQUENTIAL PRECIPITATION NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL GA AS PER
INFRARED SATELLITE/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE AS OF
11Z/6AM EST GENERALLY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST...JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC
BORDER VICINITY. NEAR/NORTH OF THIS WET-BULB FREEZING
LINE...RAP/HRRR-BASED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERMAL PROFILES WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY CHARACTERIZED BY SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BENEATH A WARMING FULL/PARTIAL MELTING LAYER BASED
AROUND/JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
AND GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE NC PIEDMONT AND FAR NORTHERN SC/PIEDMONT.

..GUYER.. 01/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35557927 35117895 34667920 34248031 34448098 34838265
            35158270 35298241 35308147 35458041 35557927 

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