ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 220958 
SPC MCD 220958 
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-221500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...WRN TN...AND
NRN/CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 220958Z - 221500Z

SUMMARY...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION MOVES EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z. HEAVY SNOW
WITH RATES UP TO 1 INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...09Z SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY RAIN IS OCCURRING
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF NRN MS...WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ONGOING OVER PARTS OF NERN AR AND WRN TN. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF CNTRL INTO ERN AR. A SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR
TCL/BHM AS OF 09Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AS THE UPPER LOW
EVIDENT OVER THE ARKLAMISS LIKEWISE MOVES NEWD THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAA AROUND THE WRN HALF OF THESE FEATURES
WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...AND
THEN TO SNOW THROUGH 15Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AR...THE MO
BOOTHEEL...WRN TN...AND NRN/CNTRL MS. 

FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH/HR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE FOR GENERALLY 1-3 HOURS BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. DUAL-POL CC DATA FROM KNQA DEPICTS A
LOWERING MELTING LAYER WITH TIME...SUGGESTING A TRANSITION TO SLEET
AND THEN SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BY 11-12Z. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1
INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS ERN AR INTO
WRN TN/NRN MS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN CNTRL/ERN AR. IN ADDITION...SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
MCD AREA...AND AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. FINALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY END FROM W TO E
AROUND/AFTER 15Z AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING MOVES E OF
THE REGION.

..GLEASON.. 01/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34909222 35529205 36389083 36348970 36148858 35198854
            33868893 33118929 32808990 32489079 33749204 34909222 

NNNN