ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 220533 
SPC MCD 220533 
ALZ000-FLZ000-220630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...

VALID 220533Z - 220630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLD WIND DAMAGE AND A WEAK TORNADO WILL
CONTINUE FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN 50-70 MI OF THE
COAST.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN COMPLEX
CONVECTIVE/HYBRID STRUCTURES WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS CYCLING
ACROSS BALDWIN COUNTY AL AND ESCAMBIA COUNTY FL.  THE UPSCALE GROWTH
OF THE CONVECTION INTO PRIMARILY A LINEAR SYSTEM IS OCCURRING LATE
THIS EVENING AS STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS
THE WEDGE-SHAPED MODIFYING WARM SECTOR OVER THE MCD AREA.  EARLIER
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS /300 M2 PER S2 0-1 KM
SRH/ HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE KMOB VAD.  DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ONLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 OVER S-CNTRL AL TO THE
LOWER 60S NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE COASTLINE...THE STRONG LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DOWNDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND A WEAK TORNADO.

..SMITH.. 01/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...

LAT...LON   30258787 31068730 31448723 31608678 31358648 30388684
            30258787 

NNNN