MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0838 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LA...SOUTHEASTERN MS...SRN
   AL..AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...

   VALID 220238Z - 220445Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS WW 7 THIS EVENING...WITH THE
   THREAT LIKELY MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
   OVERNIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MATURE THIS
   EVENING NEAR THE SABINE VALLEY...THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THE
   EAST FEATURES INCREASING SLY FLOW AND MODEST NWD TRANSPORT OF RICHER
   MOISTURE ONSHORE THE CNTRL GULF COAST. ADDITIONALLY...LOCAL VWP DATA
   SUGGEST THIS RESPONSE IS SUPPORTING 0-1 KM SRH UPWARDS OF 300 M2/S2.
   WHILE BUOYANCY DECREASES SOMEWHAT WITH EASTERN EXTENT /THUS REDUCING
   THE HAIL THREAT SOME THIS EVENING/...STRENGTHENING FLOW AND A MODEST
   INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR UPDRAFT
   ROTATION IN CELLS MOVING ONSHORE...AS WELL AS WITHIN THE LINE
   APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE THREAT MAY BE PARTICULARLY MAXIMIZED
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SRN AL AND THE WRN FL
   PANHANDLE...WHERE STRONG 850-700 MB FLOW WILL OVERLAP A MAXIMUM IN
   LOW/MID-LEVEL BUOYANCY.

   ..PICCA.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31338902 31698716 31588600 31358582 30348579 29048920
               29068956 29519024 31338902