MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CDT SUN AUG 18 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE FL PHD...ERN AL AND WRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181949Z - 182145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...VIGOROUS CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER AS IT DEVELOPS
   INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND IT SEEMS LIKELY TO SPREAD
   NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN
   GEORGIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. 
   EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL
   /POTENTIALLY DAMAGING/ STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...BUT PEAK GUSTS
   PROBABLY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW THE 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA.

   DISCUSSION...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MIGRATING INLAND WITHIN DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW
   OFF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
   INCREASING WEST/NORTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY.  CONVECTION MAY BE IN THE
   PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING...IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION EXTENDING IN A ZONE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GEORGIA
   PIEDMONT.  GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE EAST...POTENTIAL
   INSTABILITY WITHIN THE SURFACE INFLOW LAYER IS IN QUESTION.  BUT THE
   ENVIRONMENT IS VERY MOIST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2
   INCHES...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
   BELT OF 20-30+ KT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  GIVEN HEAVY PRECIPITATION
   LOADING AND THE EVENTUAL DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE JET STREAK...THE RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS COULD
   INCREASE WITH CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS TOWARD COLUMBUS...AND PERHAPS
   SOUTH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTA METROPOLITAN
   AREA...THROUGH THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME.

   ..KERR/THOMPSON.. 08/18/2013


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   29988620 31418609 33758463 32798407 31248507 29988620