MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF SRN AND SERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161740Z - 161945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH A PORTION OF SRN AND
   SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
   STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WING GUSTS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT
   APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   STRETCHES FROM HUNTSVILLE IN SERN TX WSWWD TO JUST NORTH OF SAN
   ANTONIO THEN FARTHER WEST NEAR SANDERSON...AND IS MOVING SOUTH AT
   AROUND 20 KT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE PROMOTED STRONG INSOLATION
   SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S
   ALONG WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. DESPITE THE HIGH THETA-E BOUNDARY
   LAYER AIR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH MLCAPE
   LIMITED TO 1500-2000 J/KG DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAK
   MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE FOSTERED INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS OVER
   SCNTRL TX. THE STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A
   THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
   HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST AN
   ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT IS UNLIKELY.

   ..DIAL/KERR.. 08/16/2013


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29119905 29299753 29729653 30219591 29869533 28879562
               28179796 28379994 29210027 29119905