MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK...ERN PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 160652Z - 160845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...PRIMARILY ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER AREA. OVERALL POTENTIAL
   FOR SEVERE WIND APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/LOCALIZED TO WARRANT A SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...DOMINANT STORM CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS HAVE
   STRADDLED THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
   SUPPORTED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA WITH A 20-25 KT SWLY JET SAMPLED
   IN AMA/FDR VWP DATA...ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PLAINS EML
   PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM IN THE 00Z
   AMA/DDC RAOBS. WITH AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL
   REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN SUPERCELLS. 

   RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS HAVE A REASONABLY DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
   ONGOING ACTIVITY AND SUGGEST IT WILL ACCELERATE SWD AND PERHAPS
   EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER CONVECTION /CURRENTLY OVER
   CNTRL OK/. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASINGLY MESSY CONVECTIVE
   MODE...LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY BE AT/NEAR PEAK ATTM. WITH ONLY
   MARGINAL COLD POOL STRENGTH ANTICIPATED...WIND GUSTS SHOULD LARGELY
   HOLD AOB 50 KT.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 08/16/2013


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36490007 36039970 35819941 35539859 35409813 35009776
               34379774 33409806 33149880 33149948 33390021 34080050
               34810060 35740062 36400044 36490007