MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0554 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN KS / SWRN-CNTRL-NERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 192254Z - 200000Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED OVER THE NEXT HR OR
   SO DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCHES FOR PARTS OF FAR SERN
   KS AND SWRN MO NEWD INTO NERN MO.
   
   DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF MO IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE PER
   THE 20Z SGF RAOB /1600 J/KG MLCAPE/.  THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS
   FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING /50+ KT/
   AND BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES/MESOVORTICES. 
   DESPITE SOME DECREASE OF DEWPOINTS NOTED OVER SWRN MO INTO THE LOWER
   60S DUE TO MIXING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...LOW LEVEL MOIST
   ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BY THIS
   EVENING.  IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER MID LEVEL CONVECTION ALONG THE
   KS/MO BORDER CAN ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE NEAR-TERM.  IF
   THIS OCCURS...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.  OTHERWISE...A
   TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ONCE STORMS OVER E-CNTRL KS MOVE
   INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY THE MO/KS BORDER.  IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO
   THREAT...SWATHS OF DMGG WINDS /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ WILL LIKELY
   BE THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE THIS
   EVENING/TONIGHT.
   
   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/19/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   37059508 40439345 40409199 39889151 38389179 36609288
               36569436 37059508