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Mesoscale Discussion 705 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...MN / WRN WI / NRN IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 180...
VALID 192204Z - 192300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 180 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO
OR TWO CONTINUES. THIS THREAT MAY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA BY 23Z...POSSIBLY REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL WW.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2150Z...REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWED AN ARCING BAND
OF TSTMS FROM SCOTT AND DAKOTA COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL MN TO MITCHELL
COUNTY IA WITH THIS ACTIVITY WELL CORRELATED WITH A MIDLEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND A NW-SE ORIENTED SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A 50-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP NWD THROUGH WRN WI THIS EVENING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW IN THE 850-700-MB LAYER. THIS WILL ENHANCE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO
CONTINUE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
..MEAD.. 05/19/2013
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 42149428 42709522 43979612 45189669 45999632 46639485
46489242 45389122 43469089 42489060 42159124 42149428
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