MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...NERN KS...SRN IA...NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 166...168...
   
   VALID 142147Z - 142245Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 166...168...CONTINUES.
   
   THREAT OF TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUES...AND
   WILL SPREAD INTO NRN MO THIS EVENING. WW 168 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED
   WITH A NEW TORNADO WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WW 166 CONTINUES.
   
   21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN
   MCV FEATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NEB. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS
   PREDOMINANTLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL ACROSS ERN NEB ATTM...THE
   STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW
   FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE
   ONGOING CONVECTION. OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP
   LAYER WIND FIELDS...AN INCREASING THREAT OF TORNADOES...DMGG
   WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS ALONG THE NWD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT /CURRENTLY ANALYZED
   NEAR THE NEB/KS AND IA/MO BORDER/...AND A MORE ORGANIZED MCS AHEAD
   OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV. A REPLACEMENT WW WILL THEREFORE NEED TO
   BE COORDINATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 04/14/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   LAT...LON   41659506 41779399 41649311 41109249 40649257 40189345
               39559484 39509562 39889659 40319706 41179701 41439654
               41659506