MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2289
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CST MON NOV 07 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK/SRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 071930Z - 072130Z
   
   WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT N OF TORNADO
   WATCH #870...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH LATEST VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY -- SHOWS SOME NWD DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING INTO N
   CENTRAL OK AND FAR S CENTRAL/SERN KS...THOUGH NWD MOVEMENT OF THE
   WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE OPPOSED BY PERSISTENT ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT N OF THE FRONT.  WHILE THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE TO HINDER NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT...SOME ADVANCEMENT
   OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW NWD EXTENSION OF SURFACE-BASED
   DESTABILIZATION.  THOUGH DEGREE OF POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN -- AS THIS POTENTIAL THREAT IS DIRECTLY TIED TO WARM
   FRONTAL PROGRESS...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS SOMEWHAT
   GREATER WITH ONGOING/ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION INTO SERN KS ATOP THE
   SHALLOW COOLER AIRMASS.  WHILE ANTICIPATED HAIL SIZE DOES NOT
   WARRANT WW ISSUANCE ATTM...WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER TIME IF
   THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL BECOMES MORE APPARENT...OR IF MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR IS OBSERVED THUS
   INCREASING SURFACE-BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
   
   ..GOSS.. 11/07/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   37859808 37979666 37809553 37049539 36409718 35939791
               35949968 37109910 37859808