MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN KS...NRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 241935Z - 242100Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS INITIATE AND MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
   SOUTHWEST. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 21Z.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING 994 MB LOW ACROSS THE ERN OK
   PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN OK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE AHEAD OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 3500 TO 4500
   J/KG. IN ADDITION...A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET 70 TO 85 KT
   ENTERING WEST TX WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE VERY FAVORABLE
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL
   INCREASE AS THE SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY IN WRN OK MOVE NEWD INTO SRN KS
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
   THE REGION FROM THE WEST...THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN
   RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES. A THREAT FOR
   STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH THE MORE DOMINANT
   SUPERCELLS WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING WITH TIME.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   39049645 39019804 38839927 38349974 37639976 37059947
               36649888 36609741 36949604 37449564 38149562 39049645