MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0911
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0707 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...WRN PA...NERN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 240007Z - 240130Z
   
   SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS OVER
   PORTIONS OF WRN NY...WRN PA AND NERN OH. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
   
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF GRT LKS
   TROUGH...WHERE 50 KT MIDLEVEL WLY JET IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD
   FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SVR STORM CLUSTERS AND
   POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AIRMASS IS
   DESTABILIZING SOMEWHAT...WITH MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO 500-1500
   J/KG DURING THE LAST HR. THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN STORM MAINTENANCE
   THROUGH THE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY SVR WEATHER THREAT. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL COOL AND STABILIZE...FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPR
   TROUGH MAY COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
   FOR WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   41968150 42907879 42797768 42037766 40627921 40138052
               40608205 41968150