MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 232017Z - 232145Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE CO THIS
   AFTERNOON AS CELLS INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
   
   CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND
   PALMER DIVIDE ALONG THE NWRN END OF A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY. SBCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG
   ACROSS MUCH OF NE CO. IN ADDITION...THE PLATTEVILLE CO PROFILER HAS
   SHOWN AN INCREASE IN FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS JUST AHEAD OF A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THIS INCREASE IN
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL MAKE CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
   SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING SHEAR...LAPSE RATES ARE
   STEEP WITH 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 8.0 C/KM
   IN THE DENVER AREA. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A HAIL
   THREAT WIND ISOLATED. WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF A
   LINE-SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   LAT...LON   39720205 40700344 40910449 40620530 40120574 39270547
               38680423 38430266 39720205