MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...NW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 231908Z - 232045Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND NORTHWEST TX
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS INITIATE. INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL WILL
   THE GREATEST THREAT BUT A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
   THE STORMS BECOME MORE MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL
   BE LIKELY ONCE INITIATION OF MULTIPLE STORMS BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
   
   AT THE SFC...A 1002 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN FAR NE TX PANHANDLE WITH A
   DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO WEST TX. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F WITH MESOANALYSIS
   ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3500 TO 4500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF WRN
   OK AND NW TX. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CUMULUS TOWERS IN
   BECKHAM COUNTY OK. ATTM...THE CUMULUS FIELD IS VERY SMALL BUT IS
   EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
   ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS FROM THE WEST SHOULD RESULT IN
   VIGOROUS STORM INITIATION. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...THE
   STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT SHOULD
   SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AND A
   TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MATURE AND
   THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   36979845 36779912 36279954 35390003 34620039 33710057
               33040054 32720036 32449976 32399905 32869853 34159828
               36279748 36979845