MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0894
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-NE AR...SE MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 231816Z - 231945Z
   
   AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD
   EXIST ACROSS NE AR AND SE MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY
   BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   AN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING FROM NEAR ST
   LOUIS SWWD ACROSS SRN MO INTO NRN AR. THESE STORMS ARE BEING
   SUPPORTED BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF A 35 TO 45 KT
   LOW-LEVEL JET. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE TO STRONG
   DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS SE MO AND NE AR WHERE SBCAPE
   VALUES ARE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 KT
   OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE LITTLE ROCK WSR-88D VWP SHOULD
   SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS IN THE
   LINE. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED THREAT
   FOR BRIEF TORNADOES MAY ALSO PERSIST. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
   SEVERE WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH THE ERN MOST CELLS WITHIN THE MCS
   WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED BY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AS THE CELLS APPROACH THE MS RIVER WHERE INSTABILITY IS
   STRONGEST.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...
   
   LAT...LON   35838970 35699123 35689222 36139264 36549250 36649179
               36719098 36729021 36678971 36358946 35838970