MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND...NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 231635Z - 231800Z
   
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL INCREASE AS TSTMS
   LIKELY BACKBUILD SWWD FROM CNTRL LOWER MI ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
   CONFLUENCE AXIS. THE PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   ISSUANCE BY 18Z IS 80 PERCENT.
   
   RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY TRENDS HAVE INCREASED WITH A SHORT-LINE
   SEGMENT DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS IN CNTRL
   LOWER MI. LATEST HRRR AND WRF-NMM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS
   SUGGEST SWWD BACKBUILDING ALONG THIS AXIS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND
   PROFILES SAMPLED IN AREA VWP DATA /30-40 KT AT 1-2 KM AGL/ IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR CLUSTERS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...
   
   LAT...LON   41858592 43258467 44238395 44408343 43868256 42898245
               41658317 40668393 40238473 40288557 40788645 41198653
               41858592