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Mesoscale Discussion 870 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0870
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN AND W-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329...
VALID 222356Z - 230100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329
CONTINUES.
AT 2345Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS...CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE E OFF OF THE DRYLINE OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN AND W-CNTRL TX. AXIS OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 3500 J/KG
BASED ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...AMPLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE FLOW OVER THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL REMAINS BACKED
AND STRENGTHENS WITH HEIGHT TOWARD EVENING...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING INVERSION WITH TIME...AND POSSIBLY
HINDER STORM PERSISTENCE AS THE 03Z WATCH EXPIRATION APPROACHES.
..GARNER.. 05/22/2011
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32080278 32100170 32520168 32510067 32970065 32969998
33399997 33399896 31519898 31449910 30949910 30939947
30709949 30690096 30280095 30290174 29790176 29790213
29870232 29750237 29780250 29730266 29230290 28970313
28980329 29240378 30400381 30660346 30770357 31370302
31270277 32080278
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