MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0506 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL NV INTO CNTRL UT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 222206Z - 230000Z
   
   A FEW STORMS COULD REACH MARGINALLY SVR LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   E-CNTRL NV INTO CNTRL UT...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
   QUARTERS AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.
   
   MUCAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CNTRL GREAT BASIN OWING TO RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH...SWINGING THROUGH NRN NV
   AND NRN UT...HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL NV INTO W-CNTRL UT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE SHIFTING E-NEWD AMIDST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
   30-40 KT...YIELDING A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THESE FACTORS COULD
   SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...WITH STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DMGG WIND GUST OR
   TWO. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MARGINALITY...BREVITY...AND SPARSE
   COVERAGE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   ..COHEN.. 05/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...
   
   LAT...LON   38561056 38291324 38621472 39741549 40871463 41111222
               40491044 38561056