MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 PM CDT THU APR 28 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SRN IL...WRN/NRN KY...SRN IND...SWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 281738Z - 281915Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
   MO...SRN IL...WRN/NRN KY...SRN IND AND SWRN OH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SVR WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
   AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
   TOO MARGINAL/ISOLATED TO SUPPORT WW ISSUANCE.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 17Z AND SFCOA GUIDANCE INDICATE TEMPERATURES ARE
   QUICKLY WARMING THROUGH THE 60S ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH
   VALLEYS...WHICH IS AIDING IN RAPIDLY STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. THIS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
   INITIATION OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS AS A SERIES OF
   UPPER DISTURBANCES OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY ROTATE AROUND A CLOSED LOW
   OVER SRN WI/NRN IL. IN ADDITION...A 50 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX
   DEPICTED IN LATEST RUC MODEL GUIDANCE...AND RECENTLY SAMPLED BY DVN
   VWP...WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD STRONG DEEP LAYER W-NWLY FLOW OVER THE
   AREA. THOUGH MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
   40S/ WILL ONLY YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J
   PER KG/...THE FAST FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN STORM ORGANIZATION
   /MAINLY QUICK MOVING LINE SEGMENTS/ WHICH WILL POSE AN ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..GARNER.. 04/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
   SGF...
   
   LAT...LON   37079153 36528977 36728698 37868448 39078366 39968446
               39738802 40069157 39179227 37079153