|
Mesoscale Discussion 654 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT THU APR 28 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 280719Z - 280815Z
LOW-TOPPED LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL POSE SOME RISK FOR
STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS...BUT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
A LOW-TOPPED BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...IN
THE ZONE OF ASCENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL
TROUGH OVER SW OH...WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS NNEWD TOWARD SW ONTARIO. BUOYANCY IS VERY MARGINAL
/MUCAPE AOB 100-200 J PER KG/ AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STEEP IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NRN/ERN OH...AND
CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.
STILL...GIVEN THE 50+ KT FLOW IN THE LOWEST KM AGL NOTED AT CLE AND
ILN...AS WELL AS A LARGE PRESSURE FALL-RISE COUPLET WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE NEED
FOR A WATCH INTO E CENTRAL AND NE OH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
ATTM...BUT THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..THOMPSON.. 04/28/2011
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 40948051 40058081 39768125 39788187 40218220 40518270
40728304 41028317 41408313 41598285 41568181 41708115
41688074 40948051
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|