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Mesoscale Discussion 624 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN OH...NRN WV...WRN/CNTRL PA...WRN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 271724Z - 271900Z
PORTIONS OF FAR ERN OH...NRN WV...WRN/CNTRL PA AND WRN NY WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE A WW ISSUANCE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MESOANALYSIS AT 17Z SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING NWD ACROSS
LOWER MI IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAST MOVING UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING INTO
THE GRT LKS REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH INCREASE IN CUMULUS GROWTH AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CNTRL OH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY
WARMED THROUGH THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AIDING IN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
/UPPER 50S F/...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE VALUES WILL
RESIDE AROUND 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS GIVEN VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILES PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION /0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2
S-2...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT/. LATEST 3KM HRRR
INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE OUT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING
TOWARD ERN OH BY 19Z...WITH PRE-LINE/WARM SECTOR ACTIVITY ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER WRN/CNTRL PA. THE STRONG WIND FIELDS SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS...WHICH
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
..GARNER.. 04/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
LAT...LON 42767911 42807768 41977693 40177738 38547985 38948145
40938165 42108066 42767911
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