MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 250657Z - 250800Z
   
   SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MIGHT EXTEND FARTHER EWD INTO SRN AR
   WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF THE
   THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
   
   BOWING LINE SEGMENT IN SWRN AR IS MOVING ENEWD AT 40-45 KT. A LARGE
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MCS ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN ARKANSAS
   ARCS SWWD TO THE STORM IN SWRN ARKANSAS AND IS MOVING SEWD. IT
   APPEARS THE BOWING SEGMENT WILL REMAIN ON COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WHERE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING. THE STABLE
   NEAR SURFACE AIR NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD POTENTIALLY
   SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS REACHING THE
   SURFACE...BUT THIS AIR IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES
   AROUND 60. NEVERTHELESS...INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG STRONG
   SSWLY LLJ MIGHT HELP SUSTAIN THE STORM FARTHER EWD THROUGH SRN AR
   WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/25/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...
   
   LAT...LON   33959304 34149248 34509172 34359144 33979150 33689210
               33689282 33959304