MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2131
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1000 AM CST THU DEC 16 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC AND FAR SERN MD
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 161600Z - 162000Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM .10 TO .15 INCH/HOUR ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
   EASTERN NC...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY ABOVE 1 INCH PER HOUR 
   OCCURRING ACROSS SERN VA/FAR SERN MD UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.
   THEREAFTER...THOUGH LIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME MODERATE PCPN MAY STILL
   BE OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS...THE HEAVIER PCPN SHOULD BE ABATING BY
   THAT TIME.
   
   COMBINATION OF UPPER WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH OH/KY AND STRONG WARM
   ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD WINTER PCPN ACROSS VA/NC REGION
   THIS MORNING. AS WAVE PASSES RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE REGION...850 MB
   WINDS WILL VEER TO WLY WITH WARM ADVECTION/ ISENTROPIC LIFT
   GRADUALLY WEAKENING. ALSO...SURFACE LOW IN ERN KY IS EXPECTED TO
   SHIFT EWD AND FILL...AS UPPER WAVE RESULTS IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
   WARM FRONT EAST OF DELMARVA. THUS...HEAVY PCPN IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED
   TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN FORCING SHIFTS EWD OFFSHORE.
   HOWEVER...UNTIL THAT TIME...SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS NERN NC/VA BORDER WITH MODERATE INTENSITY FREEZING RAIN.
   NORTH OF THIS REGION...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO
   SERN MD BEFORE THE HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..IMY.. 12/16/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...
   
   LAT...LON   35527551 37047567 38047534 38227613 38067684 37287762
               36897806 35567869 35017700 35527551