MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1912
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0443 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN VA...MD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 302143Z - 302315Z
   
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC NWD ALONG THE
   MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS
   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM ERN NC EXTENDING
   SWD INTO THE GULF STREAM WITH A CIRCULATION VISIBLE FROM THE
   MOREHEAD CITY RADAR EVIDENT ABOUT 100 STATUTE MILES EAST OF
   WILMINGTON NC. NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION...ROTATING STORMS ARE
   EMBEDDED IN A RAINBAND ABOUT 80 MILES WIDE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   MID 70S F FROM THE CENTER OF THE BAND EWD ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF
   NC. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A 55 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
   JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MODEL FORECASTS
   MOVING THIS FEATURE NWD AND KEEPING THE JET MAX JUST OFFSHORE FROM
   NC AND VA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
   SPEEDS SHOULD OCCUR IN ERN NC AND ERN VA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
   JET THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE OF THE
   TORNADO THREAT BUT THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 09/30/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...
   
   LAT...LON   34107748 34267793 34547799 35367774 35877750 36667722
               37867671 38167606 38247563 37947534 37397529 35917527
               35277530 34677601 34107748