MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCNTRL SD...WRN/CNTRL NEB...EXTREME NERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 142243Z - 150015Z
   
   ...INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE RISKS THROUGH EVENING...
   
   RECENT INCREASE IN BOTH MID-LEVEL CONVECTION AND SURFACE-BASED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN CO AND WRN NEB APPEARS TIED TO A SMALL JETLET
   MIGRATING EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  WHILE SHORT-TERM MODELS
   SUGGEST A LATER TIMING TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS EVENING...RECENT
   INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THE LLVL MOIST AXIS IS
   LIKELY THE START OF THE PRIMARY SHOW.  
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT AS THE
   LLVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED WWD...LOWERING OF BASES IS
   EXPECTED.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT...ENOUGH
   SRH WILL EXIST FOR A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.  
   
   HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD EXIST FROM THE PANHANDLE OF
   NEB ENE ALONG THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SWRN/SCNTRL SD
   THROUGH MID-EVENING.  STORMS MOVING NEWD FROM CO INTO SWRN NEB WILL
   POSE A MORE ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.  EVENTUALLY...ONE
   OR MORE MCS MAY EVOLVE LATE THIS EVENING WHILE MIGRATING EWD INTO
   NRN NEB/SD.
   
   ..RACY.. 09/14/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...
   CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   42140316 43150256 43730145 44070007 43879875 43369799
               42589789 42109850 40370106 39880271 41240316 42140316