MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN TX AND WRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 231843Z - 232015Z
   
   AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN TX
   AND WRN LA...AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET
   MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
   EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NERN TX INTO SRN AR/NRN LA AND CNTRL MS. S OF
   THE FRONT...WEAK ZONE OF CONFLUENT FLOW EXISTS OVER ERN TX/WRN LA
   WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 90S F...AND APPEARS TO BE
   FOCUSING INCREASINGLY AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY. WITH CONTINUED STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH
   DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S F...RESULTANT HIGH THETA-E
   AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS REMAINING
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DIMINISHES BY PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE
   OF INCREASING INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J PER KG BY MID
   AFTERNOON/...PWAT VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES /AOA 8 C PER KM/...A FEW STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR WET
   MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/23/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   LAT...LON   32669334 31169194 30079182 29539245 29739370 29309497
               30439550 32009516 32939446 32669334