MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ORE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 180050Z - 180215Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS MAINLY WRN ORE. SVR WEATHER THREAT
   APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH ATTM TO PRECLUDE A WW.
   
   WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH ENTERING WRN ORE AT
   0030Z...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRONOUNCED PLUME OF ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS
   THE REGION AS WELL AS RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND
   -12 DEG C AT 500 MB/. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
   THE AREA DURING THE LAST HR OR SO...OCCURRING ALONG PRONOUNCED
   BAROCLINIC ZONE /WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S F ALONG THE COAST
   INCREASING INTO THE 90S F OVER CNTRL ORE/ AND STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE
   RATE GRADIENT. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TOWARD
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOA 8 C PER KM IN THE 700-500 MB
   LAYER/...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 40S F TO MID 50S F...IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...40 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS
   APPROACHING THE REGION ALONG THE SERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH...WHICH IS AIDING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT
   PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFT CORES. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
   EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT...AND WHEN
   COMBINED WITH COOLING/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD BRING A
   GRADUAL END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..GARNER.. 08/18/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR...
   
   LAT...LON   43242354 44592253 45312254 45662157 44472092 43152105
               42102236 42152367 43242354