MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0531 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW THRU N CNTRL KS...PARTS OF S CNTRL NEB
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 359...
   
   VALID 202231Z - 210000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 359 CONTINUES.
   
   INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITHIN A STRONGLY
   HEATED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ACROSS
   WESTERN KANSAS.  20-30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODEST STORM MOTION INTO THE QUASI- STATIONARY
   FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BETWEEN HILL CITY AND
   CONCORDIA...NORTHWARD INTO THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER BETWEEN NOW
   AND 00-02Z.  THIS IS WHERE RUC GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THAT THE
   SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IS A BIT STRONGER AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY EVENING.
   
   ENHANCED FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...AND STRENGTHENING INFLOW OF VERY
   MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR...AS CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER/MOST
   UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...WILL LIKELY OVERCOME
   LINGERING INHIBITION AND CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION
   AND UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEM.  UNTIL THEN...AS STORMS ENCOUNTER THE FRONTAL ZONE...IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT TORNADIC POTENTIAL COULD STILL INCREASE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.  BUT...IT IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A WEAKNESS
   IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS COULD MITIGATE THIS THREAT. 
   OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS...ALONG
   WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/20/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   38970061 39869989 40319890 40149812 39649737 39059759
               38789847 38909897 38739969 38500106 38970061