MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NM INTO WRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 202042Z - 202215Z
   
   STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SERN NM INTO WRN TX WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
   TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT
   DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE.
   
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN TX IN VICINITY OF WEAK
   CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES WHERE STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING HAVE
   WEAKENED THE CAP. ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE WRN
   EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH 2500-3500
   J/KG MLCAPE...AND STORMS COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER AS THEY DEVELOP EWD
   THROUGH WRN TX. HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE
   TYPE STORMS WITH LIMITED ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL. UNLESS STORMS CAN
   CONGEAL INTO A LINE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT UPDRAFTS WILL NOT BE
   ORGANIZED OR SUSTAINED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED
   SEVERE EVENTS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/20/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   31440367 33840285 35720205 35520100 33030148 30860251
               31440367