MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0330
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0629 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/NERN NM/NWRN TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72...
   
   VALID 212329Z - 220100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72
   CONTINUES.
   
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   AT 23Z...REGIONAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STORMS
   WERE OCCURRING JUST TO THE NNE OF TAD IN SERN CO...WHILE FARTHER SE
   AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME NERN NM. HI-RES
   RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND SRV DATA FROM KPUX INDICATE THAT THE CELLS IN
   CO AND NM HAVE DEVELOPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
   LAST HOUR OR SO AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE E TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
   SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED BETWEEN RTN AND TAD...WITH A
   WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-SEWD ACROSS NERN NM AND THEN SSE INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE. E OF THE WARM FRONT...COOL ESELY WINDS CONTINUE TO
   MAINTAIN UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DEWPOINTS...THOUGH STABILITY IS
   RELATIVELY LARGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
   STRATUS. W OF THE WARM FRONT...RELATIVELY STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING
   HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   REDUCED CINH...WITH MLCAPE VALUES RESIDING AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. 
   
   GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND REDUCED CAPE
   DOWNSTREAM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO MOVE
   OUTSIDE OF THE ERN EDGE OF WW 72 DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT
   COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL E-SELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
   STRENGTHENING OF VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...THOUGH THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND TO
   THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT...AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NWD INTO THE
   SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN
   MCS...AND ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE EWD OUT OF WW 72.
   
   ..GARNER.. 04/21/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   35490415 38130479 38110275 35490219 35490415